Anambra guber election: A must win for PDP

It is quite unusual that a ruling party will be in dilemma over the choice of supporting the candidate of an opposing party in any election anywhere in the world, least of all Nigeria, with its turbulent political clime. However, as wonders will never end, this eighth wonder of the world is what the whispering campaign of APGA in Anambra state seems to be suggesting.

It is no secret that President Goodluck Jonathan shares a strong bond with the Governor of Anambra State, Mr. Peter Obi. Also not a secret is the fact that Mr Obi has leveraged on this bond with a superior in an opposing party, to consolidate his hold on the seat of power in AnambraState. It is clear that without the support of the President, Gov. Obi and his APGA team would have long been driven into obscurity.

We must not forget that the support Obi has enjoyed from President Jonathan was compelled, rather than based on willful acts. This was as a result of the divided kingdom that has been the lot of the PDP in AnambraState. So in order not to lose the state completely, allies from supposedly enemy camps were courted. Now that the storm has settled, everyone must return, each man to his tent. It is time for every candidate to answer his father's name.

The 2015 presidential election is just around the corner. This is the year of atonement in Nigerian politics and the President is deeply in the eye of the storm, as his political opponents are determined to pull the carpet off his feet.

The North has maintained its distaste for the President's administration, as it keeps insisting that a Northerner should be the one occupying the seat of the President. Incidentally, this position is not because the President is not posting creditable performance in governance, but because of the simple assumption that he is not a "political free born" of Nigeria by his origin.

The South West are also breathing fire by solidifying their hold on national politics through the merger of their traditional party, ACN with other parties to form APC. This leaves President Jonathan with only the old Eastern Region and parts of the Middle Belt as his stronghold, precisely the South-East, the South-South and the North Central geographical zones of the country.

In the South East, Anambra is central to all that happens. Not only does Anambra have the highest number of registered voters in the region, it also has significant influence on other states around it. A victory for APGA, an opposing party, will have a ripple effect which will spread to victories for APGA and other opposing parties within the zone.

This is not forgetting that ImoState has already been swooped upon by the APC hawks.   AbiaState is still battling with public hatred for its PDP governor, Theodore Orji; while EbonyiState indigenes have made no pretence in stating their desire for a change in governorship personality. No doubt, if the people of Ebonyi State are presented with a good candidate, they will rush with hands spread out to embrace him, even if he's from a party other than the ruling PDP.

The war in EnuguState about which zone produces the next governor may lead to another party sneaking in-between the PDP sheets that were once very solidly woven in the state, but now weakened by internal fighting. In the South-South, RiversState that once was the President's stronghold is now an overnight enemy state of sorts, with Gov. Chibuike Amaechi singing a new, unfriendly tune and ready to split votes which will disfavour the President. EdoState has since been swept away with the APC broom. DeltaState is not totally free as Chief Great Ogboru and his DPP team are not relenting in their efforts to intensify their fishing deep in the political waters of the state.

In the North Central, Kwara cannot be a sure bet due to its newly acquired status as a swing-state. Benue already has an aspect of its populace being sympathetic to APC, while Nasarawa carries over the CPC/ANPP battle into the APC frame to continue chirping away at PDP's hold.

With the above scenarios in view, Anambra election, therefore, comes into a serious contention as a must-win for President Jonathan so that his foothold in the South East and indeed, the South-South will not be threatened further.

Should PDP win Anambra, a huge reversal of the dwindling fortunes for the party in the South-East and South-South will be the much coveted reward. On the other hand, a loss in Anambra will not only plunge the party into deeper despair among party members, also reduce the number of delegates entitled to represent the state to at the party's nomination. This is what an APGA or indeed another party's victory cannot offer Mr President.

Are the President's political advisers saying that PDP's candidate is not fit to occupy the Government House in Awka which has remained out of the party's reach since 2003?   Are they saying that only APGA will continue to speak for PDP in the state? The President and his advisers should not be deceived by the supposedly good relationship that has so far existed between him and Mr Peter Obi.

That kind of relationship hardly endures, especially with an imminent change of baton should APGA win the governorship again by default. This is because there can only be one Peter Obi, and that same Peter is about to take a bow and make his exit. Willy Obiano is not Peter Obi. Hope or wishful thinking cannot reinvent Obiano to become Peter, especially with the ever controversial APGA Chairman, Victor Umeh, hanging on the wings and ready to descend on the whittled down party structure once his only stumbling block (or rock), Peter Obi is out of the picture.

Umeh has never hidden his preference for a South Easterner, perhaps himself, to occupy Aso Rock villa in 2015. Forget the forced show of unity merely for the sake of victory in the gubernatorial elections. Everybody knows that Umeh has not relented in his efforts to checkmate Gov. Obi in the affairs of APGA, not minding the fact that the Governor was and still remains very close to President Jonathan. If Umeh has no regard for the President while Obi is in power, will he miraculously develop this regard for the President when Governor Obi leaves?

Jonathan must not be misled – nothing good lasts forever. The impending exit of Governor Obi should signal the ceasation of the President's and his team's apparent support for APGA or indeed, any other opposing party's candidate. The good people of PDP in Anambra have also not been too happy with the sizzling romance between the national body of PDP and the AnambraState chapter of APGA.

Isn't the fact that Anambra has always been a PDP state enough to restore the state to its rightful status? Don't the over-burdened faithful of PDP deserve to reap the fruits of their labour? The likes of Dr. Alex Ekwueme, who more or less founded PDP or Chief Onyeabor Obi, whose office in Western House, Marina provided the venue for developing PDP's incubation framework, deserve better deals.

A state that has produced PDP stalwarts like Prince Engr. Arthur Eze, Dr. Chuba Okadigbo, Sir Emeka Offor, Chief Cletus Ibeto, Prof. ABC Nwosu, Chief Michael Nwakalor, Dr. Ben Obi among thousands of others, need not be married off to an unwelcome visitor.

President Jonathan should strongly reconsider this his rumoured support for APGA and do the needful. As the November 16, 2013 governorship election in Anambra state draws closer, every encouragement must be given to toiling party members, not their opponents. Resources should be massively made available and deployed to ensure that the party regains Anambra state.

This is the temperature of the atmosphere in that state. The heart of the Anambra electorate remains with the PDP. It was same electorate that in 2011 showed favour for PDP when they massively voted for the party which won two out of three available senatorial seats, while the third seat went to the ACN. APGA was left empty-handed, and the message was clear.

I am to commend the preparations put in place lately by the party towards rolling out a formidable campaign which has quickly started spreading the PDP message across the state within the short time left. A follow up action in support of this is to mobilize and give a directive to all the federal government appointees from Anambra state to return to base promptly and deliver their respective local government areas in this crucial election.   What is needed also is to bring all the warring factions to agree to sheath their sword and work together.

As Anambra awaits the presidential touch and seal to the PDP governorship campaign in the state come November 13, 2013, it is expected that all those insinuations that the presidency has willingly conceded the state's governorship seat to APGA will be laid to rest.

The rumour being rife and nauseating, this will be a one off visit that will surely encourage the teeming members and supporters of the PDP in the state to rise to the occasion by working assiduously within the remaining few days to ensure that victory is secured for the party.   Losing the state again this time around will certainly hurt both the presidency and the members of the party in the state.

 

Mr  PASCAL OKEKE, a political scientist, wrote from Awka, Anambra State.